Fragmentation of the World: Ukraine and

After the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the (at least economic) opening-up of China in 1992, it seemed safe to assume that ‘Western’ values, institutions, and habits were converging toward some general denominator, like liberalism and rule-based societies and states. Well-established theories like democratic peace, modernization theory, and institutionalism were widely discussed and also taught in countries undergoing serious transformations. Today, 30 years later, and especially in the last 12 months, it became clear that these assumptions had a limited expiration date. The most apparent problems (from a Western perspective) are generated by China and Russia, joined by Iran, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others. In official discourses and personal encounters, one gets the clear message that ‘Western’ values are not only explicitly not shared, but often addressed in negative and contemptuous ways. Democracy, secularism, multipolarity, rule-based governance, individualism, and pluralism are criticized and replaced by more collective orientations, a strong belief in ‘sovereignty,’ or dominance of traditional social (family) values and religious norms. The number of countries representing democracy, liberalism, and rule orientation is shrinking. While we cannot focus on all of these trends and issues, it may be possible to look at a few selected cases, which are different but also show some similarities. All these cases are involved (to various degrees) in current conflicts, including a war. This seminar will address the role of interests and values of six actors involved in two cases: the war between Russia and Ukraine, the role of the E.U. as an external stakeholder, and the other increasingly shrill conflict about Taiwan between the P.R. of China, Taiwan, and the U.S.A. The core question is - regarding all six actors - a) what are the assumed interests for each group of actors, and b) what are the plausible guiding values we can identify? The findings may be more precise for some actors than others, but that is how things are. A special space will be reserved for the role of increasing uncertainties, unclear aims, or ‘survival’ as the dominant interest.