Shock and Change: Strategic Surprises in

A strategic surprise can be defined as a seemingly abrupt change during warfare or bilateral relations that is unexpected in timing, location, and scope. Traditionally, this term has been applied within the framework of decision-making and policy formulation during conflicts. However, a broader perspective sees strategic surprises not only as sudden attacks that fundamentally alter the conflict landscape but also as political developments that lead to dramatic paradigm shifts—such as the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 or the end of the apartheid regime in South Africa.

This course addresses pivotal moments that have dramatically disrupted conventional paradigms in the Middle East conflict, a conflict marked by surprising events yet persistently resistant to long-lasting transformative progress. By examining occurrences of strategic surprise, including the wars of 1948, 1967, and 1973; Sadat’s peace initiative; the Oslo Accords; and the October 7 attack by Hamas, we will investigate the tension between a seeming stagnation and the potential for sudden shifts – for Peace or War. Through case studies and theoretical frameworks, students will analyze how these dynamics shape policy, conflict, and peace processes, gaining tools to critically address historical patterns and behaviors that continue to shape the region.