Failures and Successes of Three Decades

The return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, coming after a twenty-year engagement of the international community, raised hard questions on the wisdom of intervening in the lives of others. Meanwhile, the wars in Syria and Yemen, in which there was no intervention, have generated immense humanitarian crises, while the short but decisive intervention in Libya, once trumpeted as an example of the responsibility to protect, has led to more than a decade of political crisis. At the same time, there is a return of older forms of conflict: interstate war, with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia; the Israel-Palestine conflict; a deterioration of relations between China and the United States that is sometimes described as a ”second Cold War.”  

Have we forgotten the lessons of the first Cold War? Have we unlearned the lessons from the crises of the 90’s (Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda…)? Or has the world changed so radically that the lessons of the 90’s no longer apply? At a time when geopolitical confrontation is deepening, do we have the right frame of analysis and the right tools in the new landscape? Are there new lessons that we should learn from the last two decades?

To answer those questions, we will go through several case studies – focusing on conflicts in which the United Nations has been involved only to better understand the causes of failure and, in some cases, of success but also to sharpen a definition of what can be called success. I will draw on my own experience as under-secretary-general for peacekeeping, as deputy of Kofi Annan when he tried to stop the Syrian conflict, and as chair of the board of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and CEO of the International Crisis Group. I will also call on a few experts and practitioners with specific experience in particular conflicts. Ultimately, we will test the validity of existing tools on several ongoing potential or active conflicts: Ukraine and Russia, Syria, Israel and Palestine.